Sports betting can be quite profitable if you know the secrets and techniques this “smart money” gamblers apply to consistently make cash. One of the biggest secrets that smart money gamblers use can be knowing when NOT to bet.
Here’s a great illustration. My spouse and i analyzed typically the Western side Virginia vs. Louisville video game, and concluded the fact that West Florida had the edge in the match. Nevertheless , My partner and i also noticed that there were a good deal of random and unforeseen factors, and recommended to my clients that they perform not wager on this specific game. Here is my personal analysis I released prior to the game:
West Va vs . Louisville
This activity has all the signals of being one connected with the very best games associated with the year, with the two teams coming into the sport 7-0. It’s #3 positioned West Virginia as opposed to. #5 ranked Louisville, the two having high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s game was a classic, using Rest of the world Virginia coming back again from being down massive in the fourth one fourth to winning inside overtime.
So what’s the game seem like this year?
When this game were getting played in the neutral field, West Va would likely probably be a 4-6 position favorite. Since the particular game is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let’s see if this will make sense…
West Virginia is on an unprecedented spin. They will haven’t lost since March. 1, 2005, proceeding 14-0 since they lost to Florida Tech. On the last two months they’re 13-5 ATS as well. They’re also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 game titles overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their last 10 PATH games.
All these are some very outstanding stats that tilt often the scales in favor of WVU regarding tonight’s game. Plus, typically the extra benefit is that WVU will be GETTING +1 point. This could not seem like significantly, but in a close up match-up like this, that more point might make the change between a push and even a loss.
But you may be wondering what concerning Louisville?
Louisville’s stats are usually almost as good like WVU’s -except when that comes to Louisville within the point spread. In their own last 10 games, Louisville is simply 4-6 ATS. That will said, Louisville is all the same 7-3 ATS within their very last 10 home activities.
And even if you’re leaning in direction of WVU, here’s a terrifying stat… Louisville hasn’t lost at home since December 20, the year 2003! During this recent run Louisville is averaging 49. 5 points for every game in the home, while hitting only giving up 15. 7 points for each game on home. In case anyone did not do the math concepts, that means since their particular last home reduction they’ve averaged beating their particular opponents by way of about thirty four factors per game.
In addition amazing, the average line in these games has only already been 21 points. That methods Louisville has beaten often the pass on, on average, by way of 13 details per video game at home considering that the year 2003.
Wow… how can you not in favor of that?
Most of those stats had been established during the 2006 season. This year, 2006, Louisville has been closer to very good than great. They already have got recent games that has they are yet to only scored 35, 12, 24 points. These types of games weren’t against Kansas Saint. or Michigan. That they were against Cincinnati, Syracuse, together with Kansas St.
The end result is of which this is still a good close sport to contact. But the things i look for is West Virginia’s defense to carry the moment. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St. can almost all hold Louisville under 40 points, then there’s not any reason to think WVU can’t have one to typically the low to core 20’s. My honest recommendation is to lay off this particular game and certainly not bet at all. There usually are better activities this end of the week with more clear-cut positive aspects.
The final score of the game was Louisville forty four, West California 34. Lousiville won because West Va had 6 fumbles and even allowed Lousiville to give back a new punt for a good TD. The bottom line was that will West Virginia’s edge had not been so big that they can still win right after doing so many mistakes. Simply by not betting on that game, people significant concerning gambling saved money they can offer better employ on forthcoming games.